DancesWithCamels

Egypt in coordination with the Saudis began attempting to arrange meetings between Hamas and Fatah officials in Cairo in December shortly following Annapolis. At first efforts appeared fruitless with Hamas claiming Abbas established outlandish preconditions for talks while Abbas wanted to see Hamas actions in Gaza rescinded. On January 23 Hamas breached the border between Gaza and Egypt. No doubt this event acted as a major motivation for the Egyptians to become more pro-active in the mediation process. Before the border incident reports mentioned that Egyptian ‘mediators’ were working on getting the two major Palestinian factions together, days after it was President Mubarak who invited both factions for a meeting in Cairo. Hamas immediately accepted the invitation and left Abbas with little choice but to also attend. Hamas seemed to feel their actions in opening the Gaza-Egyptian border gave them an upper hand in negotiations with all parties and solidified their position in Gaza. They forced Abbas to reconcile with the fact that Hamas controlled Gaza and that it wasn’t going to give up control for the sake of negotiations…or did they. Blowing the border also appeared to have vindicated the Hamas takeover in Gaza; they could claim to be acting in the interests of suffering Gazans. As of January 30, Abbas was still sticking to pre-conditions for reconciliation even in his talks with Mubarak in Cairo. In an interview with al-Hayat in late February, Abu Mazen reiterated again that he demanded Hamas admit that what they perpetrated in Gaza amounted to a coup and that he would not enter into negotiations until this was established. He also blamed Hamas for making the Egyptians appear to be contributing to the suffering of Gaza by breaching the Egyptian-Gaza border. Abbas claims it is not the Egyptians who are responsible for the blockade of Gaza but rather Hamas due to rocket attacks on Israel and their refusal to recognize international agreements made with the PLO. On March 9, Cairo’s mediation plan was revealed—main points included

1-Lifting the siege through reinstating the agreement on the crossing points of 2005, and if Hamas has reservations on this agreement, they can be examined after the reinstatement of the agreement, and not before it.

2-On this basis, in order for Israel to allow the easing of the siege, it is imperative to establish calm, i.e. to stop firing missiles once and for all from the Gaza Strip in the direction of Israel.

3-Hamas should allow the members of the Palestinian [National] Authority to return to work at the crossing points according to the agreement.

4-In exchange for this, Israel should refrain from strikes, aggression, and assassinations.

Cairo seemed prompted to seek an end to the situation due to the incident at the border, one Egyptian official stated that, “Cairo has explained to all sides that this is an Egyptian aim that is related to the national security and the stability of the situation in the region, and Egypt will not allow a repetition of the bad situation that led to the explosion in its direction.” Cairo’s efforts are also notable because they are attempting to bring Hamas and Fatah into some sort of modus vivendi so that the sufferings in Gaza can be eased and negotiations can then be more effectively pursued between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Cairo is also one of the few regional actors who can politically engage all sides publicly and in this sense is a sort of natural intermediary. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while also keen to spearhead regional diplomatic initiatives, cannot do so due to their relations, or lack thereof, with Israel. Reports stressed that the U.S. and the Europeans were supportive of Egyptian efforts; this may be an attempt by Cairo to enhance its regional and international political prestige if the agreement can be successful under their guidance. Egypt’s decline as a regional political force after their peace with Israel is well-known, but now wounds have healed and Egypt is virtually the only Arab state with enough political influence and necessary contacts to conduct such mediation.

Egypt received confirmation from Hamas that they desired a tahdi’a (calming) and would agree to allow Fatah forces and European monitors to operate the Rafah crossing so long as Israeli military incursions ceased. Egypt’s intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, is heading the Egyptian mediation effort. The Egyptians expressed that the major objective is to first achieve a halt in Israeli and Palestinian military operations.

Egypt appears to understand the rather obvious dilemma regarding any agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. An agreement cannot be concluded solely between Abbas and Israel, Hamas and the other Palestinian factions must agree to go along with any deal lest they act as a spoiler. Mohamed Basyouni, head of the Shura Council’s committee for Arab affairs, and former Egyptian ambassador to Israel stated that “Egypt is dealing with Hamas from a security perspective and on the basis that Hamas represents a fact on the ground.” Indeed, Egypt never recognized the Hamas takeover in Gaza but has realized that Hamas must be engaged in order to reach a deal while the group also represents a security threat to Egypt. The breach of the Gaza border made these realizations all the more immediate and should be viewed as the main factor in reenergizing Cairo’s mediation efforts. Furthermore, Cairo is receiving strong U.S. support in their current effort, not a bad thing to garner before an unpopular transfer of political power in Egypt.

Fatah officials seemed optimistic that Egyptian mediation concerning the Gaza strip was nearly successful in late April. Muhammad Hurani, a member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, claimed that the Egyptians were working for a cease-fire in Gaza between armed Palestinian groups, Hamas and Israel because it was a matter of “Egyptian national security.” Fatah backed the Egyptian effort to bring about this deal but continued to stress that Abbas is still the legitimate governmental authority in Gaza. Though it remains to be seen which Palestinian faction will be strengthened should a deal be implemented.

Currently (late May), Egyptian mediation seems to be on the cusp of success, though it will certainly be a fragile ceasefire, it could pave the way for more concrete agreements in the future.